Is Texas’s Barbecue Bubble Ready to Burst?

Been mentioning and seeing this for a while. Extended hours and days, menu changes, price increases. Although I seldom dine out, and even more seldom fine out barbecue I follow a lot of restaurants FB, Insta, X. Mainly for photography and photo ideas, occasionally hey I can cook that for two. Barbecue has always been a tough gig. Used to be you cooked at home or an old shack outskirts of town. Now in my town every CStore, 12-15 brick and mortar maybe more, no telling how many licensed food trucks and probably as many outlaw BBQ folks as outlaw tamale makers. I've been to some of those mentioned and pretty much mainly get sausage and sides. I can't make sausage but my brisket, pork and chicken are mostly edible. Some of the sides are off the charts great but hard to make for only two people so I enjoy the sides. I could probably eat a greasy fried hamburger every day of my life. Can't say the same for smoked meat.

Barbecue in Texas is facing a stiff wind.
 
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Of all the social sites I follow complaints used to be in no particular order
Dry brisket, rubbery chicken and tasteless pork. You just don't see many folks complaining about sausage and sides. Now complaints trend towards cost, portion size and seeing more staff complaints.
Restaurants have always been tough but imagine the social media coverage aspect. Dayuum
 
This!

"The harder truth to swallow is that we simply have too many great options in Texas and across the country."

Prices of meat, high fuel costs, and overall economy definitely are contributors as well. I can only imagine about the locals being able to shell out $$$$ for Q. When I was in Austin in 2019 pre-pandemic, Franklin comped all the meat choices and I still ended up paying a few bucks shy of $100 for sides, drinks, etc.
 
I have almost never in my 28 years of living in Phoenix cited heat as an excuse not to do something outside (within reason, like going out for food). Just a way of life out here, and I assume TX is the same way.

Cost of gas, inflation, etc. is leading to way high food prices at both restaurants and the local grocery stores...that would be my #1 reason any industry is hurting now.

folks having a hard time paying bills just arent going to splurge for $35/lb brisket.
 
In fact woods and I just recently were discussing how brisket made Texas BBQ famous may not necessarily a downfall of Texas BBQ but a definite downturn
 
16Adams said:
Menu for Tyler's BBQ with prices

https://tylersbarbeque.com/menu/

Menu for Rudy's BBQ with prices

https://rudysbbq.com/menu/

Menu for Mitch's BBQ with prices

https://www.mitchstxbbq.com/our-menu

Just noticed Mitchs is about half the cost on sausage. May have to try that
Click to expand...


Late 2019 Franklin's prices

MVFEzdRh.jpg


Now:

By The Pound
Brisket
34
Pork Spare Ribs
30
Pulled Pork
28
Turkey
28
Sausage
19 4.40 / link
Jalapeno Cheddar Sausage
23 5 / link
Beef Rib (Friday, Saturday, & Sundays)
38
 
I think the home smoker has to be factored in. From pellet grills to offsets, cheap to nose bleed expensive, lotttts of folks have learned how to cook to their taste for far less money.

When “Texas BBQ” started there wasn’t a pit builder on every corner, there wasn’t farkbook, there wasn’t blogs or whotube, and there were veeery few bbq books on the subject, and there certainly wasn’t the BBQ Brethren.
 
Meat Costs

My guess is he probably made more profit in 2019. Meat has come down some from the peak but meat costs relative to sell price have never been great, especially with the shrink on brisket. Add in the increased costs of labor, fuel, utilities, and other supplies and the profits have to be thin right now.

And that’s with Franklin-who can charge more than anyone.


ssv3 said:
Late 2019 Franklin's prices

MVFEzdRh.jpg


Now:

By The Pound
Brisket
34
Pork Spare Ribs
30
Pulled Pork
28
Turkey
28
Sausage
19 4.40 / link
Jalapeno Cheddar Sausage
23 5 / link
Beef Rib (Friday, Saturday, & Sundays)
38
Click to expand...
 
cowboyupbbq said:
My guess is he probably made more profit in 2019. Meat has come down some from the peak but meat costs relative to sell price have never been great, especially with the shrink on brisket. Add in the increased costs of labor, fuel, utilities, and other supplies and the profits have to be thin right now.

And that’s with Franklin-who can charge more than anyone.
Click to expand...

For sure but in his case I think he still turns a good profit. Not from the brisket, rib, turkey per lb but the sandwiches, drinks, souvenirs, the coffee trailer in the back of he still has that and so on. It’s kinda like the gas station business model, not so much profit from the sale of gas but all the crap you buy at the convenience store that brings the real money in.
 
It's why I don't really eat out for BBQ. I don't want to spend $200-$400 for a meal that I might find dry, and tasteless. I can make most meats within 80-90% of man, if not better.
 
The restaurant business has always been a tough gig. Out of 100 restaurants that open in one year, out of that group, in one years time, 90 of them will be closed. Two years later only five remain. One line I used on my friends when they asked me why I did not open a BBQ joint is this:

"How do you wind up with a million dollars in the BBQ restaurant business? You start out with TWO million dollars!"
 
I've thought we've been at "peak" a lot of things for a lot of years, and yet, the market seems to continue supporting those things, at least here. I cannot believe how many craft/micro brew places have popped up around me and it seems like most of them are still open. I'm talking like 5+ years ago I was thinking we'd broke what the market could support but it seems like it's only going bigger. There's quite a few BBQ joints here in KC too, at one point I read it was the highest per capita, and I suppose we do kind of have it in our blood here, just like some of the other notable BBQ hot spots, but there seems to be no letting off the gas there, either.
 
COVID has also had a lot of people avoiding public places with money to burn thanks to government handouts ($$$) so, a lot of people bought various smokers. Now, most people are put off paying for BBQ at current prices so they fire up their own smoker at home "on the cheap".

Not to mention, I still run across a lot of people freaked out over COVID who are still wearing face masks and avoiding people in general in public settings. It's a free country still so, do as you choose but, this affects a lot of people who would otherwise patronize BBQ joints but, instead hit the fast food drive-thru.
 
Hey, good bbq is expensive, but so is lousy bbq...I've had some very mediocre brisket in Texas, so it's a crap shoot if you get what you might consider your moneys worth.

Local place here just opened, tried the ribs, edible but not worth the cost, I doubt he's gonna last..

normal people are holding back spending money, everything is going through the roof, I bought 2 bagels and 2 coffes a few weeks ago, 12 bucks, thats ridiculous. cheaper now to stop at mcdonalds...

I understand restaurants have it tough, always been that way, but I don't have to pay their inflated prices just so they stay in business.
 
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