Pork prices dropping?

[IamMadMan]

I picked up 10 Pork Butts Friday at Wegman's at $0.99 per pound for a School Scholarship Fundraiser next week. Pulled pork is on the menu......
https://www.wegmans.com/products/me...in-pork-shoulder-blade-roast-family-pack.html


Yesterday I went to the Base Commissary Friday and saw they dropped the price of Pork Butt Shoulders to $1.11 per pound. St Louis Ribs $1.19, Baby Backs $1.99.

My daughter called and told me that in Fort Worth, HEB has pork loins for $.99 per pound, (just to rub it in, LOL).

Looks like prices are dropping all around. Anyone else notice the same.





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[InThePitBBQ]

Yep, last two weeks we've been getting them @.89 cents a pound. Made lot's of sausage at those prices and have the freezers full.

 

[ShadowDriver]

Great prices, Bob!

I'm a bit jealous out here in cattle country... when we get excited over $1.88/lb briskets.

My North Carolina is showing... :shock: :wink:

 

[IamMadMan]

Great prices, Bob!

I'm a bit jealous out here in cattle country... when we get excited over $1.88/lb briskets.

My North Carolina is showing... :shock: :wink:

Yea Marc, I don't even want to discuss brisket prices up here, I get anxiety and hypertension just thinking about them (LOL).


Great to have you back in the forums with us again.... We have missed your pictorial cooks.

 

[IamMadMan]

2019 Pork Outlook: Trade Optimism and Runaway Supply

“We produce high-quality pork at an efficient price. The world has come to our doorstep to help us move that product,” he says. “But we’re at a point that we have to ask ourselves if we can continue to produce pork at this rate of growth.”

Producers control the supply, not any one individual, Hurt says. The high supply means producers can’t expect much profitability and that leaves them vulnerable to losses if the industry doesn’t have a strong demand base.

https://www.agweb.com/article/2019-pork-outlook-trade-optimism-and-runaway-supply/



With falling prices, U.S. pork seeks new world markets.

Retaliatory tariffs on Iowa’s hog industry have already cost producers more than half a billion dollars since being implemented by China and other countries earlier this year.

Dermot Hayes, an economist with Iowa State University, said a recent ISU study estimates the overall loss to Iowa’s gross state product to be $1 to $2 billion.

“We estimate pork producers are losing about $20 per head because of the tariffs,” he said. “We slaughter 10 million pigs a month, so that’s $200 million we are losing.”

Hayes said the losses will continue to mount as long as tariffs remain in place. He said pork production is expected to increase 3 to 4 percent in 2019.

“It’s hard to get Americans to eat that much more pork,” he said. “We are selling at discounted prices to places like South Korea, Mexico and Colombia. Pork’s been very cheap.”

The lower prices have also resulted in record amounts of U.S. pork being sold into Central and South America.

https://siouxcityjournal.com/busine...cle_707064c3-8b91-5da8-9ffc-f0164cef87da.html

 

[BigThicket]

Yep, last two weeks we've been getting them @.89 cents a pound. Made lot's of sausage at those prices and have the freezers full.

Basically the same here. I've paid between $.88 and $.99 for the past month. I'm selling a ton of pulled pork on the weekends so those prices have been great for business.

 

[Monkey Uncle]

Sounds like we all need to do our patriotic duty and eat mo' pig. Sign me up!

 

[sliding_billy]

Not sure if it is pork prices dropping for any other reason than seasonal effect (beef was down a bit for a few weeks before this and is right back up), but I have seen butts, picnics, spares (whole and St. Louis cut), backs, loins and various chops all make the current round of price decreases in North Texas.

 

[Norm]

ISU is notoriously wrong and his statement is bs. Pork prices cratered long before the tariffs. Yes they are a bit lower now on the 100 weight price but not by much.

With feed costs at historic lows for the last few years they are still making money. I know a friend who just built an 8000 head finishing facility recently. He's making money, slim margins but welcome to farming...

 

[Ylouder]

Short answer is Trump's trade war. It's the reason why consumer products have gone up considerably and things we make/farm have almost no value.

You can do your own Google searches. But coming from a farming state, the damage it's creating is not fake news.

https://newsok.com/article/5602111/futures-file-trade-war-sends-pork-prices-plummeting

From an Oklahoma news paper.


Futures File: Trade war sends pork prices plummeting

Pressure on pork prices leads this week's edition of Futures File, our weekly commodities wrap-up.

Hog market under the knife

Hog prices have been falling sharply in recent months, feeling intense pressure from escalating trade disputes between the U.S. and pork-buying trade partners.

In the current dispute, China has imposed tariffs against U.S. pork sales. These tariffs are likely to stick for a while, as President Trump escalated the fight on Friday, threatening to place taxes against all $500 billion of Chinese imports into the United States.

Additionally, Mexico, the biggest buyer of U.S. pork, has already imposed tariffs against American meat in response to the steel tariffs imposed by the White House earlier this year.

As a result, the two biggest buyers of U.S. pork will likely look to other foreign suppliers that aren't taxed as heavily, hurting demand for American hogs. This will create a massive backlog, which is pressuring prices for hogs. Earlier this year, lean hog futures traded as high as 84 cents per pound, but the upcoming August contract is closer to 65 cents now, and is projected to be as low as 46 cents per pound by December.

These prices will be devastating for U.S. hog producers, who can only hope for a trade resolution in the coming weeks if they didn't lock in higher prices earlier this year. For consumers, this likely means that their Christmas ham could be the lowest price in years.

 

[jermoQ]

All hail the tastiest farm animal to live at Old McDonald's house! I do feel for the hog farmers having to lose out so we can have a cheaper hog roast. Make sure to send a hog farmer an invite to the next roast you have!

Edit: maybe inviting a hog farmer to a beef bbq would make them feel better, since they are bringing in less money to afford beef?

 

[kingjman]

One of my favorites...cheap, and forgiving....about impossible to ruin.
.....put this one on last night....breakfast is almost ready.

 

[cfrazier77]

Bob,
I hope that those cheaper pork prices will come a little south to PA. I am still getting used to the way higher prices than St Louis.

 

[Stlsportster]

I'm seeing a summer full of ribs, pork belly burnt ends, home made bacon, and lots of tenderloin!

Maybe this is the summer to try a whole hog...err suckling pig too!

 

[Mike in Roseville]

Short answer is Trump's trade war. It's the reason why consumer products have gone up considerably and things we make/farm have almost no value.

You can do your own Google searches. But coming from a farming state, the damage it's creating is not fake news.

https://newsok.com/article/5602111/futures-file-trade-war-sends-pork-prices-plummeting

From an Oklahoma news paper.


Futures File: Trade war sends pork prices plummeting

Pressure on pork prices leads this week's edition of Futures File, our weekly commodities wrap-up.

Hog market under the knife

Hog prices have been falling sharply in recent months, feeling intense pressure from escalating trade disputes between the U.S. and pork-buying trade partners.

In the current dispute, China has imposed tariffs against U.S. pork sales. These tariffs are likely to stick for a while, as President Trump escalated the fight on Friday, threatening to place taxes against all $500 billion of Chinese imports into the United States.

Additionally, Mexico, the biggest buyer of U.S. pork, has already imposed tariffs against American meat in response to the steel tariffs imposed by the White House earlier this year.

As a result, the two biggest buyers of U.S. pork will likely look to other foreign suppliers that aren't taxed as heavily, hurting demand for American hogs. This will create a massive backlog, which is pressuring prices for hogs. Earlier this year, lean hog futures traded as high as 84 cents per pound, but the upcoming August contract is closer to 65 cents now, and is projected to be as low as 46 cents per pound by December.

These prices will be devastating for U.S. hog producers, who can only hope for a trade resolution in the coming weeks if they didn't lock in higher prices earlier this year. For consumers, this likely means that their Christmas ham could be the lowest price in years.

Without stoking the political flames, you are correct.

Tariffs, for all intents and purposes, are a tax. No matter how you try and spin it, the tax ultimately gets passed on to consumers (whether foreign or domestic). So if a tax on pork is passed on to consumers abroad (that they are unwilling to pay), they will purchase from another resource (country) or choose something else. That means the export pork produced domestically isn't getting exported. This in turn creates competition for farmers to sell at the lowest price because supply is high and demand is stagnant. If you think how long it takes to raise a hog to bring to market, the producers are just starting to feel the recoil of the bungee cord. Bungee cords always snap back. After some time, producers raise fewer hogs to limit the supply, (diminishing production cost) but also run the risk running in the red because farming margins are so tight. In many cases, volume is the only way it makes sense for farmers to farm. Farmer's will have some serious choices to make the further along this goes. Produce something else, or choose another profession. When the bottom dropped out of the peach market in the 1970's, everyone ripped out their peach orchards and switched to almonds. It was a choice my family had to make. Almond farmers are also starting to feel the tariffs from overseas markets as well (after years of bumper crops and top pricing).

Back to pork. I have noticed that prices have been low for quite a while, but have seen a lot more butts/roasts/ribs on sale more frequently at rock bottom prices (than I've seen in the past).

 

[Mike in Roseville]

I'm seeing a summer full of ribs, pork belly burnt ends, home made bacon, and lots of tenderloin!

Maybe this is the summer to try a whole hog...err suckling pig too!

While the low prices now generally hurt the producer, they are great in the short term for businesses and consumers.

Your suckling pig comment might actually come to fruition. Since there is generally "no money" to produce a small suckling pig, if farmers throttle back pork production in the interim, suckling pigs actually make sense from the output cost of a production standpoint.

5-6 weeks to produce a Suckling Pig.
6 months for a normal hog.

If both are a bare minimum on return, there is less output cost (feed, water, time, etc) with a regular hog, so the farmer will "lose less" supplying suckling pigs. I'd cook them! Hopefully a producer out there will see that there might be an opportunity there.

 

[gcs]

"Here" pork prices have dropped a tiny bit but only on certain specials. Costco was $1.89 for boneless butts, and $2.29 for SLC ribs yesterday, about the same as the past couple months. Some store specials are a little less, but not a regular thing. Beef? fogetaboutit!
My Daughter is also in Fort Worth, and ALL meat prices are way less there.

 

[IamMadMan]

Bob,
I hope that those cheaper pork prices will come a little south to PA. I am still getting used to the way higher prices than St Louis.

Are these near you? .99 per pound

• 1. Lancaster
  
  (717) 358-9400
  2000 Crossings Blvd
  LANCASTER, PA 17601
  
• 2. Downingtown
  
  610-518-7800
  1056 East Lancaster Avenue
  Downingtown, PA 19335
  
• 3. Malvern
  
  484-913-9600
  50 Foundry Way
  Malvern, PA 1935

 

[Norm]

The futures charts on lean hog prices show a different story. They cratered for a while after the tariff was implemented but by July rebounded to normal levels. China is still buying plenty of pork but we are producing more every day. Don't know about others but I don't Q as much in minus temps.

How about we leave the political rhetoric in the N&P forum.

 

[Mike in Roseville]

The futures charts on lean hog prices show a different story. They cratered for a while after the tariff was implemented but by July rebounded to normal levels.

They do? They're currently trading at 55.175...Nearing the bottom of 52 in August (and off near the year high of near 70 in November).



Just trying to follow your logic here.